In my last post about Twitter (supposedly my last post about Twitter ever), I rounded up a bit of the blogosphere’s dire predictions for Twitter.
“Everyone’s moving to FriendFeed,” they said. “Identi.ca will kill Twitter,” they said. “Plurk will kill Twitter,” they said.
I debunked these allegations by simply pointing to the numbers. According to some’s best guesses, the FriendFeed usercount is somewhere around 75,000, and Twitter’s traffic dwarfs these numbers. Still, in comparing the two statistics, we saw that due to the removal of the reply tab, Twitter’s numbers were taking an incredible nosedive. It was quite clear that this dive coincided with the loss of functionality that caused the tech blogging set to rise up as one and cry out in collective pain.
Given that crippled functionality caused statistical downturn, it stands to reason that enhanced functionality would have the opposite effect. A quick glance at all the major metrics engines shows this to in fact be the case.
Alexa, Google Trends, and Quantcast all show a return to Twitter by those that had theoretically left, as well as a whole barrel full of new users. Compete slightly disagrees, showing a still substantial negative velocity. Interestingly, FriendFeed has seen a spike in velocity, according to Compete.
What are the lessons we can learn here?
Obviously, first and foremost is I’m always right, so you should listen to me. More broadly applicable is the power of community and what sorts of loyalty that breeds to a service – something that FriendFeed has intrinsic to it as well. There are a certain not insignificant number of folks moving to FriendFeed, as the Compete numbers show.
Given the two site’s relative size, though, Twitter doesn’t have much to fear, other than losing a certain type of user – the vocal, visible community leader. Twitter has a large enough ecosystem that these folks can leave to a site like FriendFeed and not have a measurable impact on the base as a whole. At the same time, these users who have moved to FriendFeed can exist in an environment more to their liking, and presumably complain less about Twitter and it’s shortcomings.
Okay, so maybe that last sentence was a bit of wishful thinking, but I stand by the rest of the analysis.
What thoughts and conclusions are you drawing from the statistical bounce back of Twitter? I look forward to reading your comments.
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See original here:
Twitter Bounced Back! [I Toldja So]